“We haven’t seen that in decades,” he said, describing the “ugly statistical data” coming to light as the country restarts its economic engine.Īndrew Metrick, a professor of finance at Yale SOM and the director of the Yale Program on Financial Stability, said that he was “very concerned about financial stability,” likening the landscape today to the months leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Yao Zhiyong, a faculty member at the Fudan University School of Management in Shanghai, noted that China’s economic growth in the first quarter would surely be negative. This cautious return to life as usual is already taking place in many Asian countries hit earliest by the pandemic.īut as countries around the world struggle to treat the sick, the economic challenges are also real and pressing. “If you overwhelm the healthcare system, then people die of heart attacks, strokes, missed surgeries, trauma-the first thing we need to do is mitigate the massive wave that is occurring throughout the country, whether we’re measuring it or not.” Once this is under control, then countries can begin slowly and experimentally easing up on the blunt economic restrictions needed to suppress the coronavirus. “The one immediate threat to everyone is the healthcare system,” Forman said. This economic fallout can quickly turn into a social and humanitarian crisis.” “If we make it out alive after a month, the problem is whether people will actually have work to return to. Howard Forman, jointly appointed at Yale SOM, the Yale School of Medicine, and the Yale School of Public Health, noted that you cannot tackle mounting economic concerns if you lose sight of the basic fact that people are getting sick and dying.
Though an economic crisis is unfolding, COVID-19 is first and foremost a public health crisis.
Their discussion looked at many aspects of a situation defined by uncertainty and rapid evolution, but several key considerations emerged, ranging from what we need to focus on right now to the large-scale institutional changes we may see when the world emerges on the far side of the pandemic. Some reports liken the prospects for the world economy to the Great Depression others describe a shock followed by speedy recovery.Ī March 24 webinar hosted by the Global Network for Advanced Management tackled the question of our collective economic future with a conversation among experts in finance, economics, and global health. Predictions regarding the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic run the gamut.
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